Poker Odds Flush Draw After Flop
The actual percentage odds for a flush draw hitting on the turn and then by the river are 19.1% and 35% respectively, getting you pretty close with the 2 and 4 hack. This system works well in any situation with any number of outs. You can call moderate flop bets with strong draws like flush draws and OESDs and can usually just fold weak draws (like gutshots). Don't chase draws! If you have a flush draw on the turn, you will complete your flush on the river less than 20% of the time. You're wasting money when you call big bets on the turn.
You will have 9 outs to hit a flush on the flop or turn if you have a flush draw. From flop to the river, we have 9 outs twice to hit a flush, which is roughly 38%, from turn to the river we have about 18% (9 outs once). On the other hand, if you hold an open-ended straight draw, you will have only 8 outs to hit it. If I'd raised pre-flop with AKs and villain flat calls in position, pocket pairs are definitely part of his range. If flop comes J98 and he raises my c-bet, then I'm worried about straights, 2pr and sets. If he raises big enough, I don't often have the immediate odds to call with flush draw and overs.
The odds below represent the mathematical probability of one of these specific events occurring after the flop, or “post flop”. You can use these post flop odds along with the Best Texas Hold’em Starting Hands to help determine your best play in a given situation.
Want to know the odds of getting dealt a certain hand pre-flop? Check out our Texas Hold’em pre-flop odds. Or for a quick look at poker odds, check out Quick Reference Chart for Poker Odds.
If you are interested in learning the math behind post flop odds, check out our detailed post flop odds math.
| After the Flop | Odds |
| Q-Q not having a Ace or King by the river | 2.49 to 1 |
| Q-Q versus A-K heads up, A or K hitting by river | 1.987 to 1 |
| Flop being all one kind (J-J-J or Q-Q-Q) | 425 to 1 |
| Four flush improving | 2.859 to 1 |
| Open ended straight flush improving | 11.879 to 1 |
| Open ended straight improving | 3.256 to 1 |
| Two Pair making a full house | 5.972 to 1 |
| Trips improving to full house or better | 2.994 to 1 |
| When You Hold A-K Suited | Odds |
| Q, 10, J (for royal flush) | 19,600 to 1 |
| Improves to four of a kind | 9,800 to 1 |
| Improves to full house | 1089 to 1 |
| Flopped flush | 119.5 to 1 |
| Pair of Aces or Kings w/ four flush | 59 to 1 |
| Two of your suite with board paired 2-Q | 54 to 1 |
| Two of your suite | 9.13 to 1 |
| Any Q, J, 10 | 306 to 1 |
| Q-Q or less, one or less of your suite | 6 to 1 |
| Flop two pair | 22 to 1 |
| Q-Q-Q or 2-2-2 | 445 to 1 |
| Ace or King | 3 to 1 |
| Four to a flush | 9 to 1 |
| A-A or K-K making three of a kind | 74 to 1 |
| When You Hold K-K | Odds |
| Flopping four of a kind | 408 to 1 |
| K-A-A | 1633 to 1 |
| A-K any card | 55.7 to 1 |
| Making any full house | 102 to 1 |
| Three of a kind | 9.3 to 1 |
| A-A-A | 4,900 to 1 |
| A-A -7 | 816.6 to 1 |
| Any pair w/ no K or A-A | 6.74 to 1 |
| A and any other cards besides a K | 5.2 to 1 |
| When You Hold Q-J Off Suit | Odds |
| Flop 4-Q’s or J’s | 9,800 to 1 |
| Q-Q-J or J-J-Q | 1,089 to 1 |
| A-K-10 | 306 to 1 |
| K-10-9 or 8-9-10 | 153 to 1 |
| Flopping any straight | 102 to 1 |
| Open-ended straight | 15.3 to 1 |
| Three suited cards of a suite you hold | 45.54 to 1 |
| Flopping three of a kind (no full house) | 63.63 to 1 |
| No A or K | 1.82 to 1 |
| Q’s up or J’s up | 27.2 to 1 |
| Other Important Odds | Odds |
| No pair improving to a pair on the flop | 3 to 1 |
| Suited hole cards w/four to a flush | 12 to 1 |
| One pair improving by river | 5 to 1 |
| Pocket pair improving to trips after the flop | 12 to 1 |
| Two over cards improving to a pair | 4 to 1 |
| Two overs + gutshot straight draw improving to a pair or better | 2 to 1 |
| Gutshot straight draw hitting by the river | 6 to 1 |
| Gutshot + pair improving to two pair or better | 3 to 1 |
| Backdoor flush | 33 to 1 |
| Backdoor flush w/ over card improving to pair or flush | 6 to 1 |
| Backdoor flush with gutshot improving by the river | 5 to 1 |
| Backdoor flush w/ 2 over cards improving at least a pair | 3 to 1 |
| Odds of holding/not holding an Ace (Expressed in %) | Odds |
| 2 players no ace | 71.783% |
| 3 players no ace | 60.141% |
| 4 players no ace | 49.962% |
| 5 players no ace | 41.118% |
| 6 players no ace | 33.486% |
| 7 players no ace | 26.949% |
| 8 players no ace | 21.396% |
| 9 players no ace | 16.723% |
| 10 players no ace | 12.831% |
| The probability that no one besides you has an ace in his or her two hole cards | Odds |
| 2 players | 88.244% |
| 3 players | 77.448% |
| 4 players | 67.571% |
| 5 players | 58.571% |
| 6 players | 50.408% |
| 7 players | 43.040% |
| 8 players | 36.428% |
| 9 players | 30.530% |
| 10 players | 25.306% |
| Ace on flop, chance that someone has an ace down | Odds |
| 5 players | 49.337% |
| 4 players | 41.250% |
| 3 players | 32.316% |
About everyone knows the term 'ballpark' as used with estimates etc. For those that don't, it's just a colorful substitute for the term 'approximate' which sounds like an excuse for a lack of accuracy.
The purpose for this page is to present an easy to remember guide that can be used at the tables. The ballpark chances shown are rounded whole numbers used to make the 'odds against'. This approach assumes that a 'ballpark' 7 to 1 against is easier to remember than 6.73* to 1 or 12.94% percent to make.
* Note: Normal rounding example = 6.50 is rounded up to 7 and 6.49 is rounded down to 6.
Poker Odds Flush Draw After Flop Chart
Poker Odds Flush Draw On Flop
For a detailed view of the chart (good for mobile or tablet users) or to print, check out holdem after flop odds in universal .pdf format.